Following my previous installment on the elections, and especially following Wednesday’s debate, all the polls are showing a widening gap in favor of Sarkozy, who is poised to win by a large margin.
His greatest accomplishment, is to somehow have managed to be seen as a candidate of change, even though he was the « number two » of the outgoing government for 5 years. One way he accomplished this feat, is by breaking every taboo on the right, defending France’s colonial past and colonialism itself, blaming May 68 for every ill in the world, and by shamelessly making his own some unsavory ideas of the Front National extreme-right party.
Ségolène has had to battle against everyone from day one, including the media and her own camp, who have systematically questioned her ability and legitimacy to be the next présidente.
But the bottom line is glaringly obvious, any which way you cut it. The one and only reason that she very probably won’t win, is because she’s a woman.
Every other reason is secondary.
She’s been criticized in ways and for things that no male politician would have ever had to deal with. She basically was never taken seriously by the mostly male-dominated parties and media.
So what she proposed, and how she proposed to govern, was never really an issue. The fact that she dominated Sarkozy during the debate was probably the final nail in her coffin.
And if she does lose, and loses by a wide margin, I’m quite certain that she’ll be pummeled to death by her own party (figuratively speaking of course), who will do everything to make sure she’s out of the picture for good. And guys, if you do that, the remnants of your party will never have my vote again, even if it means the right has to reign in France forever.
And if Sarkozy wins, well, he probably won’t be able to do to France what Thatcher or Reagan or Berlusconi did to their respective countries. If he tries, then France will blow up in his face. In fact, his entire life has been about becoming president. I’m not even sure he’ll know where to go from there.
If what seems nearly inevitable comes to pass, I will be sooooooooo, disappointed. What an incredible wasted opportunity.