So, the election campaign is in full swing. No, not in the US, in France.
The first round is on April 22, of this year, and the second round is two weeks after that (yes, we always vote on Sundays. Further evidence that the French are godless, satan worshippers?)
France’s politicians distinguish themselves by their incredible longevity. Once in power, they tend to stay there, for decades.
This time, no matter what (assuming the fascist and ancient Le Pen can’t win the second round, even if he makes it past the first), this year’s elections will propel a new generation to power.
In all of the recent elections, the French have systematically voted against the grain (think the No vote to the proposed EU constitutional treaty that was backed by pretty much every party).
Yes, true to their reputation, the French are a rebellious and demanding bunch who say they crave real change, and they have rarely passed up an opportunity to express their revolutionary leanings.
So you would think the French would be excited and grateful to have a « new generation » of politicians to choose from:
- Nicolas Sarkozy, of the mainstream right, a highly ambitious and driven candidate who survived Chirac’s repeated attempts to derail his candidacy (even though they are both in the same party). Polls show him at 25 to 30% in the first round.
- Ségolène Royal, of the mainstream left, who created a sensation when she won her party’s nomination, by bypassing traditional party dogma and taking her message directly to the people, dashing the dreams of a whole line-up of « natural » socialist candidates. Polls show her at 25 to 30% in the first round.
But this is where the paradox raises it’s ironic head.
You see, Sarkozy’s policies in the outgoing government have been very criticized, and one can reasonably argue that his words helped spark the riots that rocked the « banlieues » in November 2005. Many feel he is too pro-American, and that he might have joined other European right-wing governments in the coalition of the willing had he been president at the time. He’s to the right of his predecessors on many issues. Basically, he scares the shit out of many voters. In other words, he is very divisive.
And Royal, well, she’s a woman. A lot of voters are worried about her ability to govern, in large part because of that undeniable fact. The intelligentsia (the media, many intellectuals, the parties, including her own) also resent her « populism ». Indeed, she built her platform after organizing over 5000 « participative debates » to hear what ordinary citizens had to say. This is a crime of « lèse-majesté », in a country that is used to being governed from the top-down by authoritative, paternal figures who know what’s best for the people (like in the old days of the monarchy).
So what the polls are showing, is that the rebellious, revolutionary-minded French, who’ve been clamoring for a changing of the guard for years and years, are worried, because the new guard, is, well, new.
Both candidates are « anxiogène » is how it is often stated (anxiety-inducing).
Which is certainly one of the reasons that François Bayrou, of a small centrist party, is climbing in the polls. He got about 7% of the vote in the last presidential election, but he’s at 18 to 20% in the polls today. Even though he’s nearly always voted with the right (in parliament), he’s getting support from the left by saying that the old left-right split is passé and counter-productive, and that he’ll govern with willing right-wingers and socialists if he’s elected. He promises an imaginary future where left and right work together in harmony for the good of the country (not gonna happen in France, where arguing is the national pastime). He has modest origins. He used to be a stutterer. He has a reassuring personality.
You might say he represents a kinder, gentler protest vote (compared to Le Pen).
So maybe there is no paradox. Voting for Bayrou would certainly be going against the grain. Yet by siphoning off votes from Sarkozy and Royal, he might set the stage for another scary election in which Le Pen would once again make it to the second round.
Because if things stay the way they are now, there will be four candidates in the 20% range: Sarkozy, Royal, Bayrou, Le Pen. And it could be close, so who knows who the 2 front-runners might be. If Bayrou weren’t so high in the polls, there is little doubt that we would have a Sarkozy-Royal duel in the second round.
There’s still some suspense, because Bayrou’s electorate is very volatile. And as usual, Le Pen claims that he is the subject of an evil plot to stop him from obtaining the 500 signatures of elected officials, needed to be candidate. It is true that this time, the signatures are public, so it’s a little tricker, because not everyone wants to be seen supporting a racist pig. If he didn’t get his signatures, that would change everything, and who knows who would make it to the 2nd round. But while some disagree, I believe Le Pen will get his signatures (the deadline is March 16th).
There you have it. A little tour of the French presidential elections as of today. There are many other potential candidates, but they are not doing so well this time around.
I’d be hard pressed to make a prediction. Le Pen can’t win in the second round, even if he is facing Sarkozy. Bayrou will surely win if he makes it to the second round, no matter who his oppenent might be: if he’s running against Sarkozy, the left will vote for him, and if he’s going against Royal, Sarkozy’s voters will vote for him. If it’s Ségo vs. Sarko, it could go either way, although the polls give Sarko the edge. So there’s a real possibility that the left will vote for Bayrou in the first round, just because it increases the odds of beating Sarkozy…
Personally, I’m rooting for Ségolène Royal. And not only because I don’t want Le Pen to make it to the second round again. And not only because I don’t like or trust Sarkozy, the corporate stooge candidate, the incumbent who pretends he wasn’t an important minister of the current government these last few years. And not only because I think the Bayrou vote is a wimpy cop-out and a de facto vote for the right. And not only because I would love to have a hot-looking woman Présidente representing me, and gracing my TV screen every day.